Background to the report

In England, there are approximately 20,200 state-funded mainstream schools, with academies making up 52% of these. The Department for Education (DfE) is responsible for overseeing the school system and has ultimate accountability for ensuring value for money from the £71 billion (2025-26) it provides schools. The school system is managed locally, with DfE providing local authorities, trusts and schools (the sector) with guidance and support to help their decision-making. 

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After over a decade of many schools creating more school places, a decreasing birthrate means that national demand for primary school places is now falling. Demand is set to fall from 2026 for secondary schools. Local authorities have a statutory duty to ensure that every child in their local area has a school place. It is unclear how, or if, this duty relates to unfilled places. Local authorities, schools and trusts, and not DfE, make place planning decisions locally, with DfE expecting schools to work with others in their area. 

Since schools receive most of their funding based on pupil numbers, unfilled places create financial risks. A small fall in pupils may not be enough to reduce the number of classes, and therefore teacher costs, in a school. Some unfilled places may be appropriate to, for example, offer parental choice. To secure value for money, and maximise funding spent on educational outcomes, local authorities need to assess the places needed now and in the future.

They then need to work with schools and trusts to consider the potential savings from releasing surplus places against any costs to recreate them. In February 2026, DfE published its 10-year estates strategy which recognises that the school estate needs to flex in response to changing need. 

Scope of the report

This report examines DfE’s approach to supporting the school system in England respond to falling pupil numbers, seen in primary schools since 2018/19. The report: 

  • describes responsibilities, how pupil numbers have changed and what this means for school finances and outcomes for children 
  • assesses whether DfE has a good understanding of the changes in pupil numbers and provision of school places 
  • evaluates the effectiveness of DfE’s overarching response to changes in national demand for school places, through its sector support and oversight 

Conclusion

Nationally, demand for primary school places fell by 3% between 2018/19 and 2024/25, with DfE projecting a further 7% fall from 2025 to 2030. The proportion of unfilled primary school places increased, from 10% in 2018/19 to 14% in 2024/25. Although not all local areas are seeing similar trends, falling pupil numbers have significant implications for the value for money of the school system, requiring the sector to take targeted action that aligns school capacity and costs to demand.

DfE’s approach, support and funding for school places has focused on schools having enough spaces, in line with local authorities’ statutory duty. However, it has not taken timely action to set out how it will support the sector to respond to falling pupil numbers.

As part of its recent estates strategy, DfE has begun to respond, focusing on setting out how unneeded space could best be used. This should be followed by further action, as set out in our recommendations, to protect value for money and the funding available to support educational outcomes. 

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View press release (22 Apr 2026)

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